Home Prices Continue Downward Spiral – NKBA
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Home Prices Continue Downward Spiral

By Manuel Gutierrez, Consulting Economist to NKBA

House prices across the nation are falling at a precipitous rate, and dragging home sales along with them. The Case-Shiller index, the best known measure of national home prices, fell 0.3 percent in November, marking the 5th straight month of declines. While that might not seem like a lot, cumulatively since June, prices are down 2.5 percent, in sharp contrast to the 7.3 percent spike in prices during the first half of 2022. 

  • Year over year, November prices were 7.7 percent higher, but this is also a dramatic swing from just six months prior, when prices were rising at an annual rate of 20 percent. Softer housing demand resulted in a 34 percent drop in existing home sales in December YOY.
  • Detroit is the only metro area tracked by Case-Shiller to register an increase in November, inching up just 0.1 percent. Compared to 2021 prices are 6.2 percent higher, about a third of their increase just six months prior.
  • With declines of 1.4 percent, San Francisco and Phoenix saw the largest price drops, followed by Las Vegas, down 1.3 percent. YOY, prices are just 6 to 7 percent higher for Phoenix and Las Vegas, while in March 2022, prices in Las Vegas were running 28 percent higher and in Phoenix, they were tracking 32 percent ahead. 
  • Condo prices have softened in the five metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller. Condo prices peaked around March of last year for all five metros.