I recently had the pleasure of speaking with Marc Gilbert, Managing Director & Senior Partner at Boston Consulting Group, at this year’s NKBA Executive Forum at KBIS. The session was titled “10 Forces Driving the Global Business Landscape in 2025.”
Given the tremendous uncertainty around changing federal policies at home and extremely fluid global political and economic dynamics, Marc’s insights provided much-needed perspective.
Here are some of the key take-aways from our conversation that I believe are most relevant to our NKBA I KBIS members:
The Impact of Tariffs
A core element of the new administration’s “America First” approach relates to trade policy. The expansion of tariffs, most prominently with our top trade partners in Mexico, Canada and China, has both economic and statecraft goals. Marc believes that, despite the new tariffs, trade between and among the U.S., Mexico and Canada will remain strong, even as trade between China and the West slows while that nation pivots to address its own economic and demographic challenges.
Evolving Global Conflict
Geopolitics are dominated by a range of complex global conflicts with changing dynamics. Marc believes that “conflict has transformed into a multidimensional source of risk.” Conflicts are taking unprecedented forms – some made possible by emerging technologies – and in unprecedented places, from the Arctic Circle to Earth’s orbit and even the moon. He also highlighted how the growing number of economic sanctions has made doing business increasingly complex in more and more countries.
Climate “Refuses to be Ignored”
Marc told the gathered C-suite executives that while the U.S. may be de-prioritizing climate policy and investment, the global trend toward the pursuit of clean energy is unlikely to be significantly impacted. In short, investment in clean energy is still flowing, with China and the European Union continuing to lead the way. He noted, as our own research has indicated, that American consumers are less likely than those in countries like Germany to be willing to spend more on “green” products and services.
How Companies Can Prepare
Marc offered several key insights about how companies can prepare to meet these challenges, and better protect themselves. For example, he recommends that companies invest in supply chain resilience and focus on identifying investment and growth opportunities. He also highlighted the benefits of structuring companies with differentiations that can be protective in our increasingly fragmented world. Finally, he stressed the importance of understanding and identifying risks – and opportunities – associated with quickly-evolving technology and the “AI Race.”
There is, without a doubt, a lot of uncertainty in our world right now. Some of it seems daunting, but I share Marc’s view that there is also plenty of opportunity to be seized. Now, more than ever, it’s important to stay informed so that you can make the best possible decisions for your K&B business and its future.
