2023 Kitchen & Bath Market Outlook — July Update

The National Kitchen & Bath Association has released its midyear Market Outlook Update report, the final forecasting report for 2023. In this detailed analysis, NKBA provides an estimate of the current size of the K&B market (in U.S. dollars), updated 2023 forecasts based on first-half performance, and a thorough assessment of how economic and housing market trends are impacting the kitchen and bath industry. NKBA commissioned John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) to collaborate on this report. The analysis is based on data from government and industry sources, along with JBREC’s proprietary forecasting models.

Key Takeaways

• Kitchen and bath spending is expected to total $179 billion in 2023, a decrease of only 5% year over year. This is more positive than the 14% decline predicted earlier in the year, largely due to the resurgence of the new home market in the past quarter.
• High-income households are the least rate-sensitive and continue to invest in luxury K&B remodeling projects.
• Spending on projects involving kitchen and bath professionals is forecast to decline by 5%, while DIY spending is expected to decline by 7% in 2023 compared to 2022.
• Moderate declines in remodeling spending are anticipated due to high inflation and lower household savings levels.
• The risk of a recession in 2023 appears lower than expected earlier in the year due to the current rate hike cycle.

Additional Topics Covered

• 2023 market size and forecast by construction type (new construction vs. remodeling)
• Current and historical impact of inflation on the housing market and mortgages
• K&B remodeling spending by source of funding
• Long-term outlook for K&B remodels
• Summary of projected 2022–2024 recession indicators and housing metrics